高等经济研究院教师论文被国际权威经济学期刊接收发表

2025年12月12日

近日，东北财经大学高等经济研究院孙铭佐助理教授以通讯作者身份与国际货币基金组织（IMF）经济学家 Lukas Boer 博士和 Jaewoo Lee 博士合作完成的论文 “Dominant Drivers of Current Account Dynamics”被国际权威期刊 Journal of International Economics 接受并正式发表。

该论文探讨了“哪些经济力量驱动经常账户波动”。研究发现，短期经常账户主导冲击（即在商业周期频率上能最大程度上解释经常账户波动的结构冲击）的传导机制偏离传统的支出转换框架：该冲击在短期内提升经常账户余额的同时，伴随名义与实际汇率逐步升值而非贬值。这一事实特征既不同于供给与需求冲击，也有别于近年来备受关注的外部金融冲击。基于贝叶斯方法估计的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型表明，本国与外国产品在国际市场上的相对需求冲击能够再现短期经常账户主导冲击的主要特征。在引入贸易成本冲击、设定较宽的进出口替代弹性区间以及不同本土偏好参数的一系列稳健性检验中，模型的主要结论均成立，即跨国相对需求冲击是驱动经常账户短期波动的主导力量。

 

Assiatant Professor Mingzuo Sun's Paper Accepted for Publication in Journal of International Economics 

December 12, 2025

The paper titled "Dominant Drivers of Current Account Dynamics" has recently been accepted and officially published in Journal of International Economics. This study was co-authored by Assistant Professor Mingzuo Sun from the Institute for Advanced Economic Research at Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, who served as the corresponding author, along with Dr. Lukas Boer and Dr. Jaewoo Lee, both economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The paper investigates the economic forces that drive fluctuations in the current account. The study reveals that the transmission mechanism of a short-run dominant current account driver—defined as the structural shock that accounts for the largest share of current account fluctuations at business-cycle frequencies—differs from the traditional expenditure-switching channel. Specifically, this shock leads to an increase in the current account balance in the short run, accompanied by a gradual appreciation of both the nominal and real exchange rates, rather than a depreciation. This empirical finding contrasts with the typical supply-and-demand shocks and the external financial shocks highlighted in recent literature. Furthermore, a Bayesian-estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model shows that a relative demand shock for domestic versus foreign goods in world markets can reproduce the characteristics of the short-run dominant CA driver. Through a series of robustness exercises—such as introducing trade-cost shocks, varying import–export substitution elasticities across a wide range, and adjusting home-bias parameters—the main conclusion remains consistent: cross-country relative demand shocks are the primary force driving short-run current account dynamics.