Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations

15:40-17:00, Thursday, May 8, 2025

I-206, Boxue Building

Pei KUANG, Associate Professor at the University of Macau, received his PhD degree in Economics from the University of Frankfurt in 2012, with a major research interest in macroeconomics. His papers have been published in NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, European Economic Review and other journals.

We use a series of online surveys to study how US consumers' house price expectations respond to interest rate expectations. Communication about interest rates has little effect on average house price expectations, since households have heterogeneous beliefs about the relationship between interest rates and house prices. When coupled with an explanation of the mortgage rate channel, communication about interest rates has much larger effects on house price expectations. We show that consumers' personal experiences shape their mental models of the housing market and the responsiveness of their house price expectations to interest rate expectations.

For more information of the seminar, scan the following QR code(s) to join Tencent QQ group (904 544 292) or WeChat group named "IAER Seminar (5)", please.

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(QR code is valid until May 13, 2025)